Monthly Archives: October 2014

ISIL, the Strategic Failure

It looks as if ISIL is continuing to dig itself further down into the ground.  Besides following an ideology that is inhuman, the group is really trying to make sure that it will be destroyed by the US and its allies.  The lack of long term US strategy aside of what to do with Sunni extremism, ISIL is making the classic planing mistake which I previously mentioned in the strategic discussion.

The latest murder of a British citizen highlights this common strategic failure.  The murder is intended to scare the West, as ISIL apparently believes that we are all cowards.  Because only a coward would look at that act and give in to ISIL demands.  The natural human reaction is of course, revenge.  Because that is what the vast majority of people naturally feel when attacked.  As ISIL should have realized after the first murders, they do nothing but make the people they are intended to frighten madder.  The continued murders only insure that the US and allies will continue to systematically destroy ISIL as a viable organization.  One would think that the ISIL leaders would have realized that whatever advantages those despicable acts provide in short term, long term they will only ensure ISIL’s destruction.

For all those studying strategy this is a good example of what not to do.  Projecting and assuming your enemy is a coward or less of a person than you are is a good way to plan for failure.  When making strategic policy it is much better to assume that your adversary will behave in a way that will cause you the most problems and will not fall apart at the first opportunity.  If he or she does run away or fall apart then that just makes things that much easier for you.  To plan based on the assumption your adversary is somehow less of a person than you are, is recipe for disaster as the untermenschen from the East showed Hitler and NAZI Germany in April/May 1945.  Luckily for us, the 7th century ideology of ISIL continues to insure they will remain strategic incompetents, despite their tactical successes.